March Madness 101

Thursday, 12 March 2009 12:23

(A short course on basketball’s greatest tournament) by: Casual C

First off, I would like to express to all of you that predicting the participants for the NCAA tournament is never an easy task. Analyzing and evaluating the country's best teams can easily frustrate college basketball’s top prognosticators let alone people like me. Hopefully this article will shed some light on one of sport's most exciting events, known to most as ‘March Madness’.

Currently ‘Division I’ basketball consists of 31 conferences made up of 343 teams, many with the same aspirations of making the NCAA tournament, advancing to the ‘Final Four’ and ultimately winning college basketball’s most prestigious title. Sixty-five of the 343 teams will qualify for the grueling three week, single-elimination tournament which takes place starting on Tuesday March 17th, 2009 and runs until the Championship game on Monday, April 6th, 2009 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

The NCAA tournament is split into four regions; East, West, Midwest and South. Each region has 16 teams with each team ranked one through sixteen, one being the best seed and sixteenth the worst.

(Regional Seeding Pairings: Rounds 1 and 2)

(1-16, 8-9)

(2-15, 7-10)

(3-14, 6-11)

(4-13, 5-12)

Thirty of the 65 schools in the NCAA tournament earn automatic qualification bids by winning their conference tournament. One conference, the Ivy League, does not have a conference tournament so it rewards its regular season champion as tournament representative, bringing the total of automatic participants to 31.

In 2001, a ‘play-in’ game was established by the NCAA, matching the two lowest seeded schools in the tournament. This came into effect because the newly formed Mountain West Conference, which broke away from the Western Athletic Conference in 1999, received its first automatic bid. By doing so, the number of automatic bids increased by one, meaning the tournament now had 65 entries.

The ‘play in’ game takes place every year at the University of Dayton Arena, two days before the tournament begins, with the winner earning the last sixteenth seed. To date, the NCAA tournament has never seen a sixteenth seeded school upset a number one seed. (Think David vs. Goliath with David getting destroyed… every single time.)

The remaining 34 at-large bids are chosen by a selection committee the Sunday before the tournament begins. The majority of these bids go to college basketball’s ‘Major Conferences’ which include the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Big East, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the Pac-10 and the Southeastern Conference. Schools from these six power conferences, for the most part have money and national exposure, and can attract the best talent from all over the country.

In the past, strong teams from smaller conferences, or ‘Mid-Majors’, have been overlooked by the selection committee in favor of weaker schools from ‘Major Conferences’. The selection committee has stressed that scheduling stronger opponents from the ‘Major Conferences’ can help these ‘Mid-Majors’ when it comes time to choosing the at-large entries.

This year's arduous task of choosing the field will be headed by Mr. Michael L. Slive, the commissioner of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Mr. Slive and his ten person committee, which consists of school athletic directors and conference commissioners, will select and seed the teams based on record, strength of schedule, road wins, most recent play and the team’s RPI rankings.

The RPI or Rating Percentage Index http://www.rpiratings.com/mensrpi.html is a ranking used by the selection committee when selecting and seeding the teams for the NCAA tournament. The RPI is calculated as the sum of three elements, as follows;

Element #1: A team’s ‘Division I’ winning percentage is 25% of the RPI. (Games against ‘Division II’ or ‘Division III’ opponents don’t count in the RPI)

Element #2: A team’s strength of schedule is 50% of the RPI. (This refers to the team’s ‘Division I’ opponent’s winning percentage)

Element #3: A team’s opponents’ strength of schedule is 25% of the RPI. (This refers to the opponents’ opponents ‘Division I’ winning percentage)

The NCAA selection committee will definitely have their hands full when choosing this year’s 34 at-large bids on Sunday March 15th, 2009. Schools with the possibility of making the tournament, i.e. schools on the bubble, will have one last chance to make a positive impression by performing well in their conference tournament.

For years, college basketball insiders and fans alike have all been asking the same question. Which teams will make the tournament and which ones will have their bubble burst?

Here are four bubble teams I think will make the NCAA tournament and why.

1. Dayton Flyers: Record: 25-6 | Conference Record: 11-5 | RPI = 23

Dayton, a ‘Mid-Major’ which hasn’t lost a home game all year, is in a great position to earn their first trip to the dance since 2003-04. Currently tied for second and playing in the Atlantic 10 conference (A-10) that normally receives two bids, the Flyers look to be in great shape to become the A-10’s second tournament entry. Dayton is presently 6-4 in their last ten games and owns crucial wins against top 50 RPI teams that include Xavier, Temple, George Mason and Marquette.

2. Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Record: 20–10 | Conference Record: 9-7 | RPI = 25

Oklahoma State has been playing some of their best basketball as of late, winning six of their last seven games. They are currently tied for fourth place in the Big 12 conference and hold key victories against Texas, Kansas State and Texas A&M. The Cowboys have not faired well against the top half of the Big 12 conference but with a decent conference tournament coupled with a 7-3 record over the last ten games, Oklahoma State definitely deserves an at-large bid.

3. Arizona Wildcats: Record: 19–12 | Conference Record: 9-9 | RPI = 52

Arizona is currently tied for fifth place in the PAC-10. They have had key victories against quality teams including Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington and UCLA. The Wildcats are presently 5-8 against schools under 50 in the RPI while going 6-4 in their last ten games. Unfortunately for Arizona they have only won two road games all year but in my opinion they have won enough big games to warrant an at-large bid.

4. Boston College Eagles: Record: 21-10 | Conference Record: 9-7 | RPI = 57

Currently Boston College is tied for fourth in the ACC. The Eagles hold key wins against ranked teams which include games at North Carolina, vs. Duke and most recently vs. Florida State. They hold a 4-4 record against teams with an RPI of 50 or less, are 6-4 in their last ten games and play in what’s considered basketball’s strongest conference.